- Megan McArdle, who is always excellent, wrote a great piece for the Denver Post. The points she makes, except for the fourth one (I obviously hadn’t anticipated Trump’s candidacy), are things I have been arguing for years. People use to think it was cute, but then Trump won and suddenly it wasn’t cute anymore.
- Hans-Werner Sinn wrote a good op-ed on Brexit, which brings a bit of sanity to the debate about Brexit. He is probably wrong that, without free trade, the EU will suffer just as much as the UK, but he is obviously right that the claim that free trade requires the free movement of people is complete nonsense. The way in which the pro-EU sophisticates are screaming for blood is really something.
- Since I’m recommend something by Sinn, I may as well recommend his analysis of the Greek crisis, which is the best thing I have read on that issue. In particular, it corrects the record on several false things the EU has been unfairly accused of in that affair, which many people unfortunately still believe.
- Andrew Spannaus wrote a very good piece in which he warns that Trump is being pressured by Washington’s foreign policy establishment into taking a hard stance against Russia. This was illustrated by Nikki Haley’s hysterical statement at the UN this week. I hope that Trump will not abandon his plans for a rapprochement with Russia, but it’s clear that he’s going to be under a lot of pressure to do just that. If he does, as far as I’m concerned, he can go fuck himself.
- Nikki Haley’s statement at the UN accused Russia of being responsible for the recent escalation of violence in Ukraine, but as this article by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, which can hardly be suspected of pro-Russia bias, shows very clearly, it’s Kiev that is responsible and not Moscow.
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The Ukrainian situation is reminiscent of Georgia in 2008, including the rush in the West to inaccurately blame Russia.
You’re right, it’s very similar, but more dangerous because, in the past 2 years, Kiev has put together a huge military with the help of the US. Kiev is clearly trying to force the hand of Trump by attacking the separatists. If they push it and Russia is forced to intervene openly, it will probably be a lot bloodier than Georgia in 2008, although they will get their ass kicked all the same in the end. But should this happen, we could kiss the détente between the US and Russia goodbye, at the very least.
Indeed. I have to say, though, that your characterization of Megan McArdle as “always excellent” couldn’t be more off the mark. The piece you link to isn’t the most objectionable thing she’s ever written (there’s some stiff competition for that honor) but you should be aware that she was a major Iraq war booster, who ridiculed economist James K. Galbraith for claiming that the war would cost $2 trillion. Galbraith, of course, turned out to have been entirely correct or perhaps to have underestimated the cost.
To be fair, she later “apologized” for her support of that criminal and disastrous war in a blog post with the cutesy title “I Wuz Wrong”. Keep in mind that this is a war that killed at least 100,000 people, by the most conservative estimates. Oopsy daisy.
The above alone ought to mean that she find it impossible to ever get paid to give her opinions again. But of course it hasn’t, while many who were right on this issue saw their careers suffer as a result of it.
Thanks, I had no idea, because I didn’t know her until a few years ago. I agree that it’s very bad, especially the title she chose for her mea culpa. It’s amazing that, given the circumstances, she thought she could afford to be cute. I also agree that other people who were right about Iraq have suffered because of it, whereas many people who were horribly wrong didn’t. But at least she often publishes things which are interesting, which is more than I can say about most people who were horribly wrong about Iraq, so there is that.
I shouldn’t have said Galbraith was “entirely correct”, since he was apparently referring to the cost of reconstructing Iraq, while the $2 trillion+ figures that have been given include things like military expenditures, veterans benefits, interest payments on loans taken out to finance the war, and the like. Still, McArdle’s scoffing at the idea that the war would cost trillions gives a good sense of the quality of her judgment.
I have read a lot of things she wrote that had nothing to do with foreign policy and were absolutely excellent. For instance, a few years ago, she wrote several very good pieces on health care policy. I think we should keep in mind that even intelligent people can say incredibly stupid shit, but it doesn’t mean everything they say is stupid. Of course, if you are reliably wrong on a whole range of different topics, then it’s a different story.